India’s PAIMANA Platform Sets Global Benchmark in Data-Driven Infrastructure Governance

India’s infrastructure development has entered a new era of transparency and efficiency with the launch of PAIMANA (Project Assessment, Infrastructure Monitoring and Analytics for Nation-Building). Introduced on 25 September 2025 by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), PAIMANA replaces the older OCMS-2006 system and now serves as the central platform for monitoring ongoing Central Sector infrastructure projects worth ₹150 crore or more.

PAIMANA was officially launched on 25 September 2025 by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) as a web-based platform for monitoring Central Sector infrastructure projects costing ₹150 crore or more.

On 8 July 2026, MoSPI further strengthened the system by introducing PAIMANA-CRIP, a module that consolidates project-related data across ministries, replacing DPIIT’s Integrated Project Monitoring Portal. This ensures that review mechanisms like PRAGATI and PMG draw from a unified, continuously updated repository.

Performance Monitoring Dashboard: A Unified View

Launched on 16 April 2026, the Performance Monitoring Dashboard is a landmark addition to PAIMANA. Built in consultation with the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), it aligns with the Harmonized Master List of Infrastructure (2022) issued by the Department of Economic Affairs.

• Comprehensive indicator framework spanning six sub-sectors: Power, Civil Aviation, Telecommunications, Railways, Roads, and Ports, Shipping & Waterways.
• 165 indicators in total, with 54 new additions, enabling deeper sectoral analysis.
• Interactive visualizations and time-series tools for policymakers and researchers.
• Cross-sector dashboard for integrated performance assessment.
• Evaluation across dimensions such as access, quality, fiscal cost, utilization, and affordability.

Current Infrastructure Landscape

As of June 2026, PAIMANA monitors 1,847 ongoing projects across 17 ministries, with a revised cost of ₹40.54 lakh crore. Spending has reached ₹21.97 lakh crore, or 54.18% of the total.

• 709 projects (~39%) have crossed 80% physical progress.
• 337 projects (~19%) have achieved 80% financial completion.
• Transport & Logistics sector dominates with 1,341 projects worth ₹22.32 lakh crore.
• 769 mega projects (₹1,000 crore+) account for ₹30.51 lakh crore.
• 1,078 major projects (₹150–1,000 crore) are valued at ₹5.10 lakh crore.

Ministry-Wise Progress

Ministry/Department	Projects	Revised Cost
Road Transport & Highways	1,022 (55%)	₹9.89 lakh crore
Railways	255 (14%)	₹8.69 lakh crore
Coal	121 (7%)	₹2.22 lakh crore
Petroleum & Natural Gas	105	₹4.33 lakh crore
Power	98	₹5.71 lakh crore
Housing & Urban Affairs	50	₹3.65 lakh crore
Water Resources	40	₹2.04 lakh crore
Others (Civil Aviation, Steel, Telecom, Ports, etc.)	156 (8%)	₹4.02 lakh crore

Towards Transparent Governance

PAIMANA represents a paradigm shift in infrastructure governance. By integrating project monitoring with performance dashboards, it ensures:

• Real-time updates for ministries via tailored dashboards.
• Monthly review meetings for evidence-based monitoring.
• Data-driven decision-making for sustainable and inclusive growth.

As India marches towards Viksit Bharat @2047, PAIMANA stands as a cornerstone of accountability, efficiency, and transparency in infrastructure development.

Modi Highlights India–UK Breakthrough in Trade and Social Security Agreements

Image - Prime Minister's Office

India and the United Kingdom have signed the landmark Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) along with a Social Security pact, hailed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a milestone that will deepen economic linkages, boost exports, and support Indian professionals in the UK.

PM Modi said that the CETA would provide fresh momentum to India's farmers, entrepreneurs and MSMEs by expanding access to the UK market across several vibrant sectors. He added that the agreement on Social Security would provide invaluable support to Indian professionals working temporarily in the United Kingdom and enhance the competitiveness of Indian enterprises.

Background

• Signed: July 24, 2025, in the presence of PM Narendra Modi and UK PM Sir Keir Starmer.
• Negotiations concluded: May 6, 2025.
• Signatories: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade Jonathan Reynolds.
• Bilateral trade: USD 56 billion, with a target to double by 2030.

Key Features of CETA

• Tariff Elimination: 99% of India’s exports to the UK will enjoy zero-duty access, covering nearly the entire trade basket.
• Benefiting sectors: Textiles, leather, footwear, gems & jewellery, marine products, toys.
• Tariff reduction: Processed foods, textiles, and leather tariffs cut from up to 70% to zero.
• Services Commitments: IT/ITeS, finance, legal, education, telecom, architecture, engineering.
• Professional Mobility: Streamlined pathways for contractual service suppliers, business visitors, intra-corporate transferees, and independent professionals.
• UK quotas: 1,800 Indian chefs, yoga instructors, and artists annually.

Social Security Agreement

• Exemption: Indian workers and employers exempt from UK social security contributions for up to three years.
• Savings: Over ₹4,000 crore, improving take-home pay and competitiveness.

Strategic Impact

• For India: Boosts farmers, MSMEs, artisans, women-led enterprises; expands access to UK markets.
• For the UK: Gains access to India’s fast-growing market; strengthens cooperation in technology and innovation.
• For Both Nations: Reflects trust between democracies; builds a forward-looking partnership driven by trade, technology, investment, and innovation.

Leadership Statements

• PM Narendra Modi: “This is a significant moment in the India–UK partnership. These agreements translate our shared ambition into tangible opportunities for our people.”
• Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal: “This FTA unlocks tariff-free access on 99% of Indian exports to the UK, advancing the ‘Make in India’ initiative and setting the stage for bilateral trade to double by 2030.”

Conclusion

The India–UK CETA and Social Security Agreement mark a transformative step in bilateral relations, opening unprecedented trade opportunities, easing professional mobility, and reinforcing shared prosperity goals.

India’s Manufacturing Sector Accelerates in May

India’s manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in three months in May 2026, with the final HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rising to 58.4, up from 56.9 in April. This marks the strongest improvement in factory activity since February, driven by robust new orders, stronger output, and resilient domestic demand.

The official release for India’s May 2026 Manufacturing PMI came from S&P Global/HSBC on June 1, 2026, confirming the final PMI at 55.0 — revised upward from the flash estimate of 54.3. This marks a three‑month high, driven by stronger new orders, output, and purchasing, despite rising input costs.

Key Highlights – May 2026 PMI Data

• Manufacturing PMI: Rose to 58.4, the highest in three months.
• Factory Output: Expanded sharply, reversing April’s moderation.
• New Orders: Growth accelerated, supported by domestic demand and inventory building.
• Export Orders: Rebounded after April’s softness, though global headwinds remain.
• Employment: Hiring picked up modestly, reflecting optimism in medium-term demand.
• Cost Pressures: Input prices rose at the fastest rate since July 2022.

Context Behind the Expansion

• Global backdrop: Despite West Asia conflict and softer global demand, India’s manufacturing showed resilience.
• Domestic drivers: Inventory building and strong consumer demand offset external uncertainties.
• Sectoral strength: Electronics, chemicals, and textiles led the rebound.

Implications for India’s Economy

• GDP boost: Manufacturing contributes ~17% of GDP; sustained PMI expansion supports long-term targets.
• Export competitiveness: Rising costs may challenge exporters.
• Policy support: Initiatives like PM MITRA parks and Semiconductor Mission 2.0 reinforce momentum.
• Investment outlook: Strong PMI readings improve investor confidence.

Quick Comparison – April vs May 2026 PMI

Indicator	April 2026	May 2026	Trend
Manufacturing PMI	56.9	58.4	↑ Fastest in 3 months
Factory Output	Moderate	Strong	↑
New Orders	Slowed	Accelerated	↑
Export Orders	Soft	Rebounded	↑
Input Costs	Rising	Sharply higher	⚠

Risks & Challenges

• Rising input costs could squeeze margins and fuel inflation.
• Global trade tensions may limit export gains.
• Geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia could disrupt supply chains.

India’s Economy Fires Up: Fastest Growth in 18 Months at 8.2%

India’s economy grew by 8.2% in the July–September 2025 quarter, its fastest pace in 18 months, driven by strong consumer demand, manufacturing expansion, and festival-related production boosts.

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Highlights of India’s Q2 FY2025-26 GDP

• Growth rate: India’s GDP expanded 8.2%, a six-quarter high, surpassing expectations of ~7.3%.
• Consumer spending: Robust demand was fueled by a GST rate cut and festival-season purchases, which lifted retail and services.
• Manufacturing surge: Factory output rose sharply as companies front-loaded production ahead of festive demand and in response to punitive U.S. tariffs, which encouraged domestic substitution.
• Services sector: Near double-digit growth in financial services, IT, and trade contributed significantly.
• Global comparison: India outpaced major economies—U.S. (3.8%), China (4.8%), Germany (0.3%)—cementing its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

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Context and drivers

• Festivals effect: The July–September quarter coincides with India’s festive season (Raksha Bandhan, Ganesh Chaturthi, Navratri, Diwali prep). Businesses typically ramp up production and inventory to meet demand.
• Tariff impact: U.S. tariffs on certain Indian exports pushed firms to reorient production toward domestic markets, inadvertently boosting local consumption.
• Policy support: Pro-growth reforms, including tax rationalization and infrastructure spending, created a supportive environment.
• Resilience: Despite weaker farm output, strong services and manufacturing offset rural drag.

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Implications

• Domestic strength: India’s growth is increasingly consumption-led, showing resilience against global headwinds.
• Inflation and monetary policy: Low inflation supported spending, but the Reserve Bank of India may weigh tightening if demand overheats.
• Global standing: India’s sustained high growth strengthens its role as a driver of global economic expansion, especially as advanced economies slow.

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Looking ahead

• Near-term moderation: Economists expect moderation in coming quarters as festive demand fades and external pressures (tariffs, global slowdown) persist.
• Medium-term support: Structural reforms, digital infrastructure, and demographic advantage continue to underpin growth.

In short: India’s 8.2% GDP growth in July–September 2025 reflects a perfect storm of festival-driven demand, tariff-induced domestic production, and strong services expansion, making it the fastest-growing major economy globally.

India grew 8.2% in July–September 2025, far outpacing major economies and most of its neighbors.

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GDP Growth Comparison (July–September 2025 / FY2025)

Country	GDP Growth Rate (%)	Notes
India	8.2	Fastest-growing major economy, driven by consumer demand & manufacturing
United States	3.8	Strongest since 2023, led by consumer spending
China	4.8	Slowed from 5.2% in Q2; property downturn weighs on demand
Germany	0.3	Stagnant economy; exports hit by tariffs
France	0.9	Subdued growth amid tight monetary policy
Japan	1.1	Weak domestic demand, modest industrial output
United Kingdom	1.3	Slight recovery, but still sluggish
Indonesia	5.0	Solid growth, supported by consumption and investment
Malaysia	5.2	Stronger regional performance
Bangladesh	3.9	Slowed due to inflation & political transition
Pakistan	2.7–3.1	Weak growth, IMF cites corruption & structural issues
Nepal	4.4–4.6	Recovery driven by hydropower, tourism, and construction
Sri Lanka	4.9	Gradual recovery post-crisis, led by services & construction

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Key Takeaways

• India (8.2%) is far ahead of both advanced economies (U.S. 3.8%, Germany 0.3%) and neighbors (Bangladesh 3.9%, Pakistan ~3%, Nepal ~4.5%, Sri Lanka 4.9%).
• India’s growth is consumption-led and manufacturing-driven, while neighbors face structural challenges like inflation, political instability, or post-crisis recovery.
• Among emerging markets, Indonesia and Malaysia are performing well (~5%), but still trail India.
• Advanced economies remain sluggish due to tight monetary policy and weak demand, highlighting India’s resilience.

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In short: India’s Q3 2025 growth surge cements its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, significantly outperforming both global peers and South Asian neighbors.

Serial Entrepreneur Launches One of Its Kind Saas Platform to Aid India’s Creator Economy by Supporting Community Owners With Monetization

Despite the creator economy beginning a decade ago, 50+ million people worldwide consider themselves creators of whom 97% aren’t getting paid. Gurugram-based startup LikeMinds, which aims to disrupt the space, today formally unveiled its SaaS platform for community creators that enables them to create value for their members, avoid the hassle of juggling between many tools to manage their community besides being able to monetize. 

The platform with a simple & easy-to-use interface has inbuilt tools for member acquisition, onboarding, retention, moderation, monetization and referrals. The platform drives high engagement and belongingness via chat rooms, events, polls, member directory and rewards. LikeMinds has helped 100+ creators (2000+ in waitlist) including entertainers, fitness & wellness trainers, domain experts, language instructors, life coaches, financial experts, micro-entrepreneurship coaches, exam prep coaches etc. LikeMinds is also planning initiatives like a Course on community management and Community of community creators for education of community creators.

Commenting on the new platform, Nipun Goyal, Founder & CEO, LikeMinds, said -

Social networks have morphed into more ''media `` than''social `` platforms. On top, most creators irrespective of how engaged their audience is, are left out as “ad-driven” platforms only reward top creators and on top have to constantly beat the algorithms to reach their own audience. Or forced to use platforms that are not built for community engagement or creator monetization like Slack, Discord, WhatsApp & Telegram. The pain of managing multiple third-party tools to engage and monetize their community is real and significant. 

With LikeMinds we are aiming to help solve this growing issue of creators and in the process fuel India’s creator’s economy to the next level.” “Only brand funded communities largely sustain in the long term today and the only way to change that is to help community owners become professional and better monetize their communities. Our vision is to give people a place where they develop a sense of belonging through interaction with people having shared interests and eradicate loneliness that current social media platforms rather end up generating,” he further added.

About LikeMinds: 

Gurugram-based LikeMinds was founded in 2020 by Nipun Goyal, IIT Delhi Alumni, previously Co-founder at Curofy, who is also a successful serial entrepreneur and angel investor with 12+ investments including 4 YC-backed venturers. It aims to fuel India’s creator’s economy through it’s SaaS platform that delivers all the tools any community builder/owner needs to effectively manage and monetize their communities. The venture currently has 35 employees and already boasts of 100+ creators as its customers. Custom integrations are also available for creators with existing assets. Do visit https://likeminds.community/ for more details.

Seasonal Floods in India Lead to $7.5 Bn Loss of Economy in 2020 - Aon Report

Image for Representation Only

"When Natural Disasters and a Pandemic Collide" global annual report explores "connected extremes"

CHICAGO, Jan. 25, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Aon plc (NYSE: AON), a leading global professional services firm providing a broad range of risk, retirement and health solutions, today launches its global Weather, Climate & Catastrophe Insight: 2020 Annual Report. The report evaluates the impact of global natural disaster events to identify trends, manage volatility and enhance resilience.

The report reveals that the 416 natural catastrophe events of 2020 resulted in economic losses of USD268 billion – 8% above the average annual losses for this century – as costs continue to rise due to a changing climate, more people moving into hazard-prone areas and an increase in global wealth. Of this total, private sector and government-sponsored insurance programs covered USD97 billion, creating a protection gap of 64%, which is the portion of economic losses not covered by insurance. This highlights the importance of addressing the underserved by ensuring that there is increased access to affordable insurance products in the future.

"The global response to the socioeconomic volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has increased focus on other systemic risks – particularly climate change – and is causing a fundamental reordering of business priorities. This report highlights the increasing likelihood of 'connected extremes' and reinforces that leading organizations of the future will be defined by their ability to manage the global implications of concurrent catastrophic events," said Greg Case, CEO of Aon. "In a highly volatile world, risk remains ever present, is more connected and, as a result, is also more severe – and 2020 has underscored this reality. It has also emphasized the need for enhanced collaboration between the public and private sectors, which will be essential to close the rising protection gap and build resilience against natural catastrophes."

During the year, more than 8,000 people lost their lives due to natural catastrophes. Tropical cyclone was the costliest peril, causing more than USD78 billion in direct economic damage. It was closely followed by flooding (USD76 billion) and severe convective storm (USD63 billion). From a climate perspective, NOAA cited 2020 as the world's second-warmest since 1880 for land and ocean temperatures at +0.98°C (+1.76°F) above the 20th-century average.

Steve Bowen, Director and Meteorologist for Aon's Impact Forecasting team, commented: "The world continues to evolve as it is faced with new challenges around natural perils. While many private and public sector entities primarily focus on physical and human hazard risks, an increasing number of global regulative bodies are further pivoting towards how to handle emerging transitional and subsequent reputational risks. This is especially true as the financial and humanitarian risks surrounding climate-enhanced events become more evident on a daily basis. Focus at the corporate and federal levels will be critical around investments in risk mitigation, resilience, and sustainability as the landscape around climate change solutions continues to accelerate with renewed urgency.

Significant regional events during 2020 included:

• Costliest year on record for global severe convective storms led by historic U.S. derecho
• U.S. mainland endured a record-breaking 12 named storm landfalls, including six hurricanes
• Super Typhoon Goni struck the Philippines as the strongest landfalling storm ever recorded globally at 195 mph 
• Ciara became Europe's costliest windstorm since Xynthia in 2010
• Drought conditions reduced agricultural crop yields in Brazil and Argentina, burning 30% of the Pantanal Region
• The most widespread Yangtze River Basin floods since 1998 caused USD35 billion of economic damage in China's monsoon season. 

Exhibit 1: Top 10 Global Economic Loss Events1,2
Date(s)	Event	Location	Deaths	Economic Loss (USD billion)	Insured Loss (USD billion)
June - September	Seasonal Floods	China	280	35.0	2.0
August 21 - 29	Hurricane Laura	U.S., Caribbean	68	18.2	10.0
May 15 - 21	Cyclone Amphan	South Asia	133	15.0	0.5
August 8 - 12	SCS (incl. Midwest Derecho)	United States	4	12.6	8.3
July 3 - 15	Kyushu Floods	Japan	82	8.5	2.0
November 2 - 13	Hurricane Eta	Caribbean, U.S.	309	8.3	0.7
June - September	Seasonal Floods	India	1,922	7.5	0.8
September 14 - 18	Hurricane Sally	United States	0	7.0	3.5
March 22	Zagreb Earthquake	Croatia	2	6.1	0.1
July 30 - August 5	Hurricane Isaias	U.S., Caribbean, Canada	18	5.0	2.7
All other events	145 billion	66 billion
TOTAL	268 billion	97 billion
1	Subject to change as loss estimates are further developed
2	Includes losses sustained by private insurers and government-sponsored programs

The full report and a short film are available on Aon's interactive microsite at https://aon.io/3nsM7cu. To access current and historical natural catastrophe data, as well as event analysis, please visit catastropheinsight.aon.com.

Indian economy will bounce back from lows inflicted by COVID-19 - Gautam Adani

Billionaire Gautam Adani on Wednesday exuded confidence that the Indian economy would bounce back from the downturn caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, saying it might take time but it is possible.

International agencies from the World Bank to IMF have projected that the Indian economy will grow at its slowest pace since the 1991 economic reforms.

"Global economic history is full of major ups and downs. India's domestic economy has always stood as a great shield in protecting the country from global economic headwinds. 

"I have no doubts that the nation will be able to rise above this crisis. It might take time but there is ample optimism to show that it is possible," he wrote in a blog on Linkedin.

The outbreak of pandemic has led to the government imposing a nationwide lockdown that has shut factories and businesses, suspended rail and air travel and restricted movement of people and goods. The result is a severe disruption in the economy.

While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected economic growth of 1.9 per cent in 2020-21, the World Bank sees India's growth at 1.5- 2.8 per cent as the coronavirus outbreak severely disrupts the economy.

The Asian Development Bank sees India's GDP growth slipping to 4 per cent in the current fiscal, while S&P Global Ratings has further slashed its economic growth forecast for the country to 3.5 per cent from a previous downgrade of 5.2 per cent. 

Fitch Ratings puts its estimate for India's growth at 2 per cent in FY21, while Moody's Investors Service has slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent, from an earlier estimate of 5.3 per cent.

"However alarming the post-Coronavirus world might seem to appear, it does not pull me down. Instead, by looking around I get great hope and confidence to bounce back," Adani wrote in the blog titled 'How COVID-19 helped rediscover hope and goodness'.

The coronavirus, he said, can restrict movement but it cannot contain the urge to fight and help each other. "It cannot stop us from being positive about the future," he said. "Together, let us stay resilient and hopeful." 

Adani, who heads the port-to-energy conglomerate Adani Group, said rising global concern on the vast implications of the COVID-19 outbreak on future is obvious with anxieties mounting on economies, jobs and the very existence of mankind.

"However, amidst the gloom, there are several small discoveries that are worth cherishing," he said as he went on to cite new discoveries that have brought a ray of hope.

He cited MyLab Discovery Solutions, a small startup in Pune, becoming the first Indian firm to produce indigenous coronovirus testing kits.

"What is even more inspiring is the story of Minal Dakhave Bhonsale, the virologist who headed this project," he said adding she managed to deliver the project amid an advanced stage of pregnancy. The project was completed a day before she delivered a baby girl.

"Hundreds of such incredible stories that demonstrate resilience, hope, and power of the human spirit are unfolding around us every day," he said.

Continuing to cite examples of innovation, he said a team of engineers at Adani Port in Vizag created a sanitized water shower in just about 4 hours.

"Difficult times bring us closer and make us stronger to face any eventuality. We must be able to look around ourselves and find these narratives," he said.

Stating that he had come across several inspiring narratives on social media, he said several families from different sections of the society have invested their lockdown time in aggregating essentials for the underprivileged.

These are common people leading humble lives but what makes them extraordinary is their intent to care for others. "Domestic helps, daily wage earners and scores of people who earn their living by doing odd-jobs are being looked after, not just by governments, large corporations or charitable organisations, but by common people living around them," he wrote. "There are also virtual groups of animal lovers who are feeding strays and ensuring that they find safe shelter." 

Similarly, a civil service aspirant, Naveen MS in Chitradurga district of Karnataka took up the responsibility of creating awareness and dispelling myths on corona virus among rural communities.

"What was most admirable was his vision. He thought that for the economy to resurrect it was essential that people's minds stay healthy," he said. "In fact, I feel gratified to see the community outreach work being delivered by young volunteers at the Adani Foundation. Over the past three weeks, millions settled in the remote corners of the country have been touched and empowered to stay safe against the COVID19 outbreak." 

He said this collective goodness and love for each other hadn't erupted suddenly but it was always there within. "The COVID19 crisis has only presented an opportunity for us to reflect upon this feeling of compassion and worked as a trigger to unite people."

World Bank Sees FY21 India Growth at 1.5-2.8 % -- Slowest Since Economic Reforms Three Decades Back

India is likely to record its worst growth performance since the 1991 liberalisation this fiscal year as the coronavirus outbreak severely disrupts the economy, the World Bank said on Sunday.

India's economy is expected to grow 1.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent in the 2020-21 fiscal which started on April 1, the World Bank said in its South Asia Economic Focus report.

It estimated India will grow 4.8 per cent to 5 per cent in the 2019-20 fiscal that ended on March 31.

The COVID-19 outbreak came at a time when India's economy was already slowing due to persistent financial sector weaknesses, the report said.

To contain it, the government imposed a lockdown, shutting factories and businesses, suspending flights, stopping trains and restricting mobility of goods and people.

"The resulting domestic supply and demand disruptions (on the back of weak external demand) are expected to result in a sharp growth deceleration in FY21 (April 2020 to March 2021)," it said, adding that the services sector will be particularly impacted.

A revival in domestic investment is likely to be delayed given enhanced risk aversion on a global scale, and renewed concerns about financial sector resilience.

"Growth is expected to rebound to 5% in Fiscal 2022 (2021-22) as the impact of COVID-19 dissipates, and fiscal and monetary policy support pays off with a lag," the World Bank said.

The World Bank joins a chorus of international agencies that have made a similar cut in growth estimates in recent days on concerns about the COVID-19 outbreak.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) sees India's economic growth slipping to 4 per cent in the current fiscal, while S&P Global Ratings has further slashed its GDP growth forecast for the country to 3.5 per cent from a previous downgrade of 5.2 per cent.

Fitch Ratings puts its estimate for India growth at 2 per cent, while India Ratings & Research has revised its FY21 forecast to 3.6 per cent from 5.5 per cent earlier.

Moody's Investors Service has slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent, from an earlier estimate of 5.3 per cent.

In its report released on Sunday, the World Bank saw the South Asian region, comprising eight countries, growing by 1.8 - 2.8 per cent this year, down from the 6.3 per cent it projected six months ago.

Its 2019-20 estimate for India at 4.8 - 5 per cent is lower by 1.2 - 1 per cent of the estimate made in October 2019. The 1.5 - 2.8 per cent growth estimate in 2020-21 is lower than 5.4 - 4.1 per cent estimated in October last year.

"The green shoots of a rebound that were observable at the end of 2019 have been overtaken by the negative impacts of the global crisis," the World Bank report said, adding India has set aside just over 1 per cent of GDP for programs to increase health sector spending and compensate the unemployed, with the bulk of the money going towards cash transfers, free food and gas cylinders, and interest-free loans.

In a conference call with reporters, World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia Hans Timmer said India's "outlook is not good."

And if the domestic lockdown is prolonged, then the economic result can be much worse than what the World Bank has in its baseline range of forecasts.

Among the steps that India can take to address this challenge, Timmer said the first is to focus on mitigating the spread of the disease, and to make sure that everybody has food.

"Then, it is very important to prepare for a rebound and that means there should be a focus on temporary jobs programmes, especially at the local levels. Those initiatives should be supported. And it is important to prevent bankruptcies especially of a small and medium sized enterprise," Timmer said in response to a question.

"In the longer run, this is really an opportunity to bring the Indian economy on sustainable path not just fiscally, but also socially," he said.

The World Bank is working with India to mitigate the challenge posed by COVID-19. It has approved USD 1 billion to India, of which the first tranche has already been released to deal with the emergency in the health care sector.

The first tranche aims at delivering civilian diagnostic equipment, put in place additional capacity to deal with testing and make testing available that benefits the entire population, said World Bank Vice President for South Asia Hartwig Schafer.

It is also working with India on two additional operations, which is anticipated to be ready in a matter of weeks.

These include, employment, banking and micro, small and medium enterprises sector.

In its report, the World Bank said that the COVID-19 outbreak has magnified pre-existing risks to India's economic outlook.

The government is undertaking measures to contain the health and economic fallout, and the RBI has begun providing calibrated support in the form of policy rate cuts and regulatory forbearance.

"Given significant uncertainties, there is a wide confidence interval around the baseline estimate. If a large-scale domestic contagion scenario is avoided, early policy measures payoff, and restrictions to the mobility of goods and people can be lifted swiftly, an upside scenario could materialize in FY21, with growth around four per cent," it said.

"However, if domestic contagion is not contained, and the nationwide shutdown is extended, growth projections could be revised downwards to 1.5 per cent, and fiscal slippages would be larger," it said. PTI LKJ ANZ

COVID-19 to Hit South Asia Very Hard, likely to Wipe out Gains made in Poverty Alleviation: West Bengal

The global coronavirus pandemic will hit South Asia very hard and the significant gains made in poverty alleviation in the region are likely to be wiped out due to the impact of the deadly disease, the World Bank warned on Sunday.

In its twice-a-year regional update, the bank said that South Asian governments must ramp up action to curb the health emergency, protect their people, especially the poorest and most vulnerable, and set the stage for fast economic recovery.

The latest report 'South Asia Economic Focus' anticipates a sharp economic slump in each of the region's eight countries, caused by halting economic activity, collapsing trade, and greater stress in the financial and banking sectors.

The COVID-19 pandemic will hit South Asia very hard and the significant gains made in poverty alleviation in the region are likely to be wiped out, the report warned.

In this fast-changing and uncertain context, the report for the first time presents a range of forecast, estimating that regional growth will fall to a range between 1.8 and 2.8 per cent in 2020, down from 6.3 per cent projected six months ago.

That would be the region's worst performance in the last 40 years, with temporary contractions in all South Asian countries. In case of prolonged and broad national lockdowns, the report warns of a worst-case scenario in which the entire region would experience a negative growth rate this year.

This deteriorated forecast will linger in 2021, with growth projected to hover between 3.1 and 4.0 per cent, down from the previous 6.7 per cent estimate, it said.

Maldives is expected to be the worst hit along with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, wherein the full range of forecast is in negative territory, said Hans Timmer, World Bank Chief Economist for the South Asia Region.

The other countries are likely experiencing short term recessions, but the fiscal year growth numbers could be seen positive, he added.

"For example, India we forecast in the baseline growth between 1.5 and 2.8 per cent. In the worst case scenarios, all countries would experience the decline in GDP in their annual growth numbers," he said.

"The priority for all South Asian governments is to contain the virus spread and protect their people, especially the poorest who face considerable worse health and economic outcomes," said Hartwig Schafer, World Bank Vice President for the South Asia Region.

"The COVID-19 crisis is also an urgent call-to-action moment to pursue innovative policies and jumpstart South Asian economies once the crisis is over. Failure to do so can lead to long-term growth disruptions and reverse hard-won progress in reducing poverty," he said.

According to the report, the impact of the pandemic will hit hard low-income people, especially informal workers in the hospitality, retail trade, and transport sectors who have limited or no access to healthcare or social safety nets.

The report notes that the COVID-19 shock will likely reinforce inequality in South Asia.

As played out across the region, the sudden and large-scale loss of low paid work has driven a mass exodus of migrant workers from cities to rural areas, spiking fear that many of them will fall back into poverty, it said.

While there are no signs yet of widespread food shortages, the report warns that a protracted COVID-19 crisis may threaten food security, especially for the most vulnerable.

In the short term, the report recommends preparing weak healthcare systems for greater COVID-19 impacts, as well as providing safety nets and securing access to food, medical supplies, and necessities for the most vulnerable.

To minimise short-term economic pain, the report calls for establishing temporary work programs for unemployed migrant workers, enacting debt relief measures for businesses and individuals, and easing inter-regional customs clearance to speed up import and export of essential goods.

Once lockdown restrictions are loosened, South Asian governments should adopt expansionary fiscal policies combined with monetary stimulus to keep credit flowing in their economies, it said.

Since many South Asian countries have limited fiscal space, these policies should target people worst hit by the freeze on economic activity, it said.

The report urges governments to adopt temporary spending measures and coordinate with international financial partners to avoid unsustainable long-term debt levels and fiscal deficits.

"After tackling the immediate COVID-19 threat, South Asian countries must keep their sovereign debt sustainable through fiscal prudence and debt relief initiatives," said Timmer.

"And looking beyond the present crisis, lie great opportunities to expand digital technologies for payment systems and distant learning to unlock remote areas in South Asia," said the World Bank Chief Economist for the South Asia Region.

The novel coronavirus which originated from China in December has killed 108,862 people and infected over 1.7 million people globally. The US has the highest number of infections at 529,887, while Italy leads the death toll with 19,468 fatalities, according to Johns Hopkins University data. PTI LKJ

UN Predicts 'Deep Recession' in Latin America Due to Virus

Latin America is heading into "a deep recession" in 2020, with an expected drop in the region's GDP of 1.8 to 4.0 per cent due to the coronavirus pandemic, the UN economic commission for the region said Friday.

"We are at the beginning of a profound recession. We're faced with the largest fall in growth that the region has had," said Alicia Barcena, executive secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL).

Latin America was already struggling economically, with feeble growth of just 0.1 per cent in 2019.

As with other parts of the world, the region's main stock markets have suffered drastic losses as the virus crisis has escalated, and several currencies have plunged in value against the US dollar.

A reduction in economic activity due to lockdowns imposed to combat the spread of the virus, a drop in the value of raw materials and the blow to tourism have all contributed to the bleak outlook.

Barcena said the best-case projection takes into account only the drop in economic activity with China, the region's largest trading partner.

But if a drop in trade with the United States and European Union is also factored into the calculation, then a 3-4 per cent contraction is expected. AFP

Global Economy could Shrink by Almost 1% in 2020 due to COVID-19 Pandemic: UN

The global economy could shrink by up to one per cent in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, a reversal from the previous forecast of 2.5 per cent growth, the UN has said, warning that it may contract even further if restrictions on the economic activities are extended without adequate fiscal responses.

The analysis by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) said the COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting global supply chains and international trade. With nearly 100 countries closing national borders during the past month, the movement of people and tourism flows have come to a screeching halt.

"Millions of workers in these countries are facing the bleak prospect of losing their jobs. Governments are considering and rolling out large stimulus packages to avert a sharp downturn of their economies which could potentially plunge the global economy into a deep recession. In the worst-case scenario, the world economy could contract by 0.9 per cent in 2020," the DESA said, adding that the world economy had contracted by 1.7 per cent during the global financial crisis in 2009.

It added that the contraction could be even higher if governments fail to provide income support and help boost consumer spending.

The analysis noted that before the outbreak of the COVID-19, world output was expected to expand at a modest pace of 2.5 per cent in 2020, as reported in the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2020.

Taking into account rapidly changing economic conditions, the UN DESA's World Economic Forecasting Model has estimated best and worst-case scenarios for global growth in 2020.

In the best-case scenario — with moderate declines in private consumption, investment and exports and offsetting increases in government spending in the G-7 countries and China — global growth would fall to 1.2 per cent in 2020.

"In the worst-case scenario, the global output would contract by 0.9 per cent — instead of growing by 2.5 per cent — in 2020," it said, adding that the scenario is based on demand-side shocks of different magnitudes to China, Japan, South Korea, the US and the EU, as well as an oil price decline of 50 per cent against our baseline of USD 61 per barrel.

The severity of the economic impact will largely depend on two factors - the duration of restrictions on the movement of people and economic activities in major economies; and the actual size and efficacy of fiscal responses to the crisis.

"A well-designed fiscal stimulus package, prioritising health spending to contain the spread of the virus and providing income support to households most affected by the pandemic would help to minimise the likelihood of a deep economic recession,” it said.

According to the forecast, lockdowns in Europe and North America are hitting the service sector hard, particularly industries that involve physical interactions such as retail trade, leisure and hospitality, recreation and transportation services. Collectively, such industries account for more than a quarter of all jobs in these economies.

The DESA said as businesses lose revenue, unemployment is likely to increase sharply, transforming a supply-side shock to a wider demand-side shock for the economy.

Against this backdrop, the UN-DESA is joining a chorus of voices across the UN system calling for well-designed fiscal stimulus packages which prioritize health spending and support households most affected by the pandemic.

"Urgent and bold policy measures are needed, not only to contain the pandemic and save lives, but also to protect the most vulnerable in our societies from economic ruin and to sustain economic growth and financial stability,” Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin said.

The analysis also warns that the adverse effects of prolonged economic restrictions in developed economies will soon spill over to developing countries via trade and investment channels.

A sharp decline in consumer spending in the European Union and the United States will reduce imports of consumer goods from developing countries.

“Developing countries, particularly those dependent on tourism and commodity exports, face heightened economic risks. Global manufacturing production could contract significantly, and the plummeting number of travellers is likely to hurt the tourism sector in small island developing States, which employs millions of low-skilled workers,” it said.

Meanwhile, the decline in commodity-related revenues and a reversal of capital flows are increasing the likelihood of debt distress for many nations. Governments may be forced to curtail public expenditure at a time when they need to ramp up spending to contain the pandemic and support consumption and investment.

UN Chief Economist and Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Elliot Harris said the collective goal must be a resilient recovery which puts the planet back on a sustainable track. “We must not lose sight how it is affecting the most vulnerable population and what that means for sustainable development,” he said.

The alarms raised by UN-DESA echo another report, released on March 31, in which UN experts issued a broad appeal for a “large-scale, coordinated, comprehensive multilateral response” amounting to at least 10 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP).

According to estimates by the Johns Hopkins University, confirmed coronavirus cases across the world now stand at over 932,600 and over 42,000 deaths.