India Unveils AI-Powered Monsoon & Rainfall Forecasts for Hyper-Local, Impact-Based Weather Services

• AI-enabled Systems Introduced by IMD to Provide Hyper-local Weather Forecasts. 
• Advanced Forecast Systems to Provide Localised Weather Information Up to 10 Days in Advance. 
• Government Introduces AI-enabled Monsoon Forecasting Platform for 16 States and Over 3,000 Sub-districts
• Union Minister Dr Jitendra Singh Launches AI-based Monsoon Advance Forecast System and 1-km Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh
• Dr Jitendra Singh Says IMD Has Become an Essential Part of India’s Everyday Governance and Public Decision-making

India has launched two landmark AI-enabled weather forecasting systems—an AI-driven monsoon advance forecast and a high-resolution rainfall model for Uttar Pradesh—marking a decisive shift towards hyper-local, impact-based climate services designed to aid farmers, disaster managers, and policymakers.

The systems have been developed jointly by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). 

1. AI-enabled Monsoon Advance Forecast
   • Provides probabilistic forecasts every Wednesday up to 4 weeks in advance.
   • Covers 16 states and 3,000+ sub-districts.
   • Designed to support farmers’ sowing, irrigation, crop planning decisions.
2. High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast (Pilot in Uttar Pradesh)
   • Generates 1-km resolution rainfall forecasts up to 10 days ahead.
   • Uses AI-driven downscaling techniques integrating data from Doppler radars, AWS, ARGs, and satellites.
   • Expected to expand to other states as infrastructure grows.

Benefits Across Sectors

• Agriculture: Farmers gain precise, localized forecasts for sowing, irrigation, crop protection, and harvest planning.
• Disaster Management: Improved early warnings for floods, cyclones, and extreme rainfall events.
• Urban Planning: Helps cities prepare for drainage, infrastructure resilience, and water resource management.
• Renewable Energy: Supports solar and wind energy forecasting, stabilizing grid operations.

Technological Advancements

• Expansion of Doppler Radars: From 16–17 a decade ago to ~50 today, with another 50 planned under Mission Mausam.
• Forecast Accuracy Gains: Severe weather forecast accuracy improved by 40% in the past decade; cyclone track predictions improved by 30–35% in the last five years.
• Digital Dissemination: Forecasts shared via mobile apps, SMS, WhatsApp, Kisan portals, TV, and radio for last-mile connectivity.

Comparison of New Systems

System	Coverage	Forecast Horizon	Resolution	Primary Use
AI Monsoon Advance Forecast	16 states, 3,000+ sub-districts	Up to 4 weeks	District/block level	Agriculture planning, disaster preparedness
Rainfall Forecast (UP Pilot)	Uttar Pradesh (pilot)	Up to 10 days	1 km	Hyper-local rainfall prediction, urban planning

Strategic Importance

• Strengthens climate resilience and citizen-centric governance.
• Aligns with PM Modi’s modernization drive under Mission Mausam.
• Positions IMD as a decision-support system for governance, agriculture, and infrastructure.

The monsoon advance forecasting system would now provide granular forecasts on monsoon progression at district-level scales, while the Uttar Pradesh pilot project demonstrates the capability of generating operational rainfall forecasts at 1-km resolution using dense observational networks and AI techniques.

Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr. M. Ravichandran said that similar services would gradually be expanded to other parts of the country as observational infrastructure continues to grow.

Dr. Jitendra Singh said the newly launched forecasting products represent another important step towards building a climate-resilient, digitally empowered and citizen-centric weather service system for the country, where scientific advancements directly contribute to societal and economic benefits.