Indian Crypto Industry 2025 Review & 2026 Outlook

India’s crypto story in 2025 matured beyond the hype cycle. Participation widened outside metros, investors shifted toward disciplined, longer-term behavior, and the conversation moved from “if” to “how” crypto integrates with mainstream finance and compliance. The next year hinges on regulatory clarity and institutional-grade infrastructure catching up with grassroots demand.

2025 snapshot: Adoption, behavior, and geography

• Non-metro surge: Tier-2, -3, and -4 cities accounted for roughly three-quarters of activity, signaling diffusion from metro-centric early adopters to broader “Bharat” participation. Uttar Pradesh led state contributions at around 13% in some datasets, reflecting heightened engagement beyond traditional hubs.
• Investor resilience despite taxes: Even with India’s 30% flat tax on crypto gains, retail activity persisted as investors adapted with more cautious, long-term strategies and diversified portfolios emphasizing Bitcoin’s renewed dominance.
• Youth-driven participation: The user base remained skewed younger, mirroring trends in India’s expanding equity participation, but with crypto increasingly treated as one allocation within a broader wealth plan rather than a standalone speculative bet.
• Scale and maturity narrative: India remained among the largest global markets by adoption, with 2025 characterized by high transaction volumes and growing exchange competition under strict tax rules and evolving compliance expectations.

Policy and compliance realities in 2025

• Tax regime anchoring behavior: The 30% tax and compliance requirements pushed retail toward fewer, higher-conviction trades, longer holding periods, and cleaner audit trails—reducing churn while sustaining participation.
• Regulatory posture: Industry operated under taxation-first oversight with an expectation of clearer licensing and consumer-risk frameworks ahead, as domestic growth and global coordination pressures mounted.

Market structure and infrastructure trends

• Exchange-led localization: Platforms focused on regional onboarding, vernacular content, and simplified KYC flows to tap non-metro demand at scale, aligning crypto adoption with broader digital finance penetration.
• Mainstreaming use cases: Tokenization narratives and Bitcoin’s “treasury” framing gained mindshare as institutions globally explored structured participation, setting the stage for India’s infrastructure upgrades in custody, reporting, and compliance in the next phase.

2026 outlook: What changes, what persists

• Institutional tilt accelerates: Expect a gradual shift from retail-dominated flows to institution-ready structures—better custody, auditability, and risk controls—driven by global regulatory convergence and tokenization use cases gaining operational traction.
• Macro and thematic drivers: Higher-quality assets and clear narratives (Bitcoin as macro hedge or treasury asset; real-world asset tokenization; compliant yield) likely lead performance and capital allocation, with risk premia compressing as rules clarify.
• Domestic regulatory clarity: India faces mounting pressure to move from tax-only oversight to licensing, consumer protection, standardized disclosures, and onshore compliance rails—critical to enabling safer participation and attracting institutional capital.
• Geographic depth sustains growth: Non-metro adoption remains the engine, aided by vernacular education, agent networks, and simplified compliance experiences—keeping India’s user expansion resilient even without immediate policy liberalization.
• Scale trajectory: Analyses of India’s evolution suggest multi-year revenue growth and user expansion potential as frameworks mature; projections vary, but the directional trend points to sustained growth into the late 2020s under clearer rules.

Risks and watchlist for 2026

• Regulatory timing risk: Delay in licensing and consumer-risk frameworks could cap institutional participation and keep costs high for compliant operators.
• Global spillovers: External shocks (macro tightening, cross-border enforcement actions) can propagate quickly into Indian retail sentiment and liquidity.
• Operational compliance: KYC, AML, and tax reporting burdens remain a moat and an execution challenge; firms that productize compliance will gain advantage.

Practical moves: For companies and investors

• For companies:
  • Compliance-first rails: Build audit-ready custody, reporting, and disclosure systems anticipating licensing and standardized safeguards.
  • Regional distribution: Invest in vernacular education, lightweight onboarding, and agent-assisted support to deepen non-metro growth.
  • Institutional partnerships: Align with banks, fintechs, and custodians to bridge crypto with mainstream finance and tokenization pilots.
• For investors:
  • Core-satellite discipline: Anchor allocations in higher-quality assets (e.g., BTC) with measured exposure to tokenization and yield themes; prioritize compliance and documentation given tax realities.
  • Hold-period focus: Favor longer horizons and transparent record-keeping to mitigate tax friction and volatility impacts.
  • Regulatory readiness: Track licensing developments and platform safeguards; shift toward institution-grade venues as they emerge.

Views by Industry Leaders

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX

Looking back at 2025, the crypto industry paints a mixed but hopeful picture. On one hand, the industry saw real progress: growth in DeFi projects, expansion of stablecoins, new CBDC-infrastructure pilots, and rising developer activity across APAC and globally, with millions committing to code on-chain. On the other hand, after early-year optimism from retail investors, the October correction was a reminder that sentiment remains fragile and that hype without real delivery can still hurt the industry... 

... Institutional shifts and policy signals, however, brought meaningful momentum. Vanguard reversed its long-standing prohibition on crypto, opening its platform to Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana ETFs, triggering a surge in mainstream adoption. The CFTC’s approval of spot crypto ETFs added another boost, reflecting a steady move toward giving traditional financial investors regulated crypto exposure. Firms like BlackRock continued their disciplined investment push into digital assets.

Looking ahead to 2026, there might be reason for optimism just yet. In India, the foundation stone of the CBDC project could be laid soon. The RBI has announced a hackathon in October to nurture tech talents in the emerging technology space, which will encourage more Indians to see emerging tech as a promising career prospect. A clearer regulatory framework for VDAs, potentially paired with supportive tax measures, support for stablecoin initiatives alongside CBDC measures, could unlock real-world blockchain use cases from Indian builders to kickstart on-chain growth for Indians.

So, while 2025 wasn’t a clean breakout year, it was undeniably transformative. Infrastructure matured, institutional participation widened, and policy debates sharpened worldwide.

In 2026, globally, institutional appetite for regulated digital-asset products will continue to increase, driving capital inflows and contributing to market stability. At the same time, domestic policies for countries will be key in shaping their respective investor sentiment.”

Raj Karkara, COO, ZebPay

2025 has shaped up to be a landmark year for crypto, a year where digital assets moved decisively from niche innovation toward foundational financial infrastructure. The start of the year saw the establishment of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a bold signal of Bitcoin’s growing strategic importance. By mid-year, the passage of the GENIUS Act provided a clear regulatory framework for USD-backed stablecoins, fostering trust and laying the groundwork for broader adoption. October brought a historic moment as Bitcoin surpassed $125,000 to record a new all-time high, while tokenized real-world assets spanning real estate, commodities, and financial instruments surged, demonstrating how blockchain is bridging traditional finance and the digital economy... 

...Regulatory and institutional progress continued to gain momentum as the year advanced. The CFTC’s December 4 announcement allowing listed spot crypto products on registered futures exchanges marked a pivotal step in evolving the ecosystem from regulated ETFs to clearer cross-border compliance frameworks and deeper institutional participation. These milestones underscore a global shift toward credibility, transparency, and scalable adoption of digital assets, positioning crypto to play an increasingly integral role in the years ahead.

This year, as we celebrated ZebPay’s 11th anniversary, we unveiled our new identity, “Bitcoin Mein Pro.” Since 2014, Bitcoin has been central to what we do, and with this reaffirmation of our long standing conviction, we have made Bitcoin investing our clear and enduring purpose. Throughout 2025, we upheld education as a core priority, through workshops, explainers, and platform-led initiatives, with the aim of helping users understand the true essence of Bitcoin as an asset class, build confidence, embrace long-term thinking, and develop an investor mindset that looks beyond short-term market movements, as they progress in their ‘Pro’ journey. Furthermore, we strengthened our security architecture through advanced, multi-layered protections, complemented by enhanced KYC/AML frameworks that ensure a fully compliant and trustworthy environment for every user.

We are committed to helping people embrace Bitcoin with confidence while building long-term trust in digital assets. Moving into 2026, we anticipate exciting opportunities to expand adoption, introduce innovative solutions, and strengthen the infrastructure that will support the next generation of crypto investors. ZebPay’s mission is to guide this journey with clarity, reliability, and a focus on sustainable growth that creates long-term value.