According to a recent survey, there is a 50% chance that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will surpass human intelligence in all areas within a period of about 45 years. The study conducted by researcher Katja Grace at the University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute and a team involved surveying a total of 1,634 artificial intelligence researchers from all around the world.
The main aim of Grace’s survey was to find out about when exactly do the AI experts believe that intelligent machines and the AI that power them will beat human intelligence in a number of different contexts.
The survey results shows that experts believes that within the next decade, AI has the capability of outrunning human beings in tasks like translating languages (by 2024), writing high school essays (by 2026), and driving trucks (by 2027). Further, a majority of the researcher surveyed believe that other tasks such as carrying out surgeries (2053) or even writing a bestseller (2049) wouldn’t be so imminent. Notably, the survey also saw several of the experts predicting that Artificial Intelligence would most definitely not outperform human beings at Go at least until 2027. But, that has already happened in many ways. This means, the opinions/predictions of the AI experts might have been too sober or conservative against AI and its potential.
The survey results yielded that there is a good chance that AI will run past human intelligence in all areas within about 45 years. In fact, the Asian AI researchers surveyed believe that this wouldn’t take that long and will happen in the next 30 years. But on the other hand, North American researchers believe that AI is no where near replacing human intelligence at least for another 74 years.
While experts have different timelines on when AI would surpass human intelligence, one thing is for sure, it is surely going to happen and the humankind needs to be prepared for it. Countries such as US and Canada have already started preparing for the situation ahead and are calling for affordable education for all for the same very reason. In fact, some countries and companies are also planning or already trialling out universal basic income programs as they foresee this as the only possible future in the light of automation donning on mankind.